A new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has concluded that global temperatures are now likely to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold established under the Paris Agreement. The report suggests that exceeding this level is increasingly difficult to avoid, but stresses that further action can still make a difference.
The focus is now increasingly on limiting how far temperatures rise above 1.5°C, how long they remain above this level and how quickly they can be brought back down. For the global energy sector, this puts further emphasis on reducing emissions while continuing the move towards lower-carbon energy, greater energy efficiency and more resilient infrastructure.
What Does Exceeding 1.5°C Mean?
The 1.5°C target comes from the Paris Agreement, under which countries agreed to work towards limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, while keeping warming well below 2°C. Temporarily exceeding this threshold does not mean that the Paris Agreement has failed or that further efforts to reduce emissions will no longer make a difference.
UNEP’s latest assessment instead looks at how far temperatures could rise and how long they could remain above the target. Its most optimistic scenario estimates that global warming could peak at around 1.8°C, while other scenarios suggest temperatures could rise further depending on future emissions, government policies and how quickly existing climate commitments are put into action.
This is important because climate-related risks won’t suddenly begin when temperatures reach 1.5°C. The potential impacts generally increase as temperatures rise, meaning that limiting any additional warming still matters.
The Energy Transition Remains a Key Priority
Energy production and consumption remain a major part of global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. UNEP highlights several measures that can support this, including expanding renewable electricity generation, increasing electrification, improving energy efficiency and reducing reliance on higher-carbon energy sources.
Many of the technologies needed to support these changes are already available, with wind and solar generation growing considerably in recent years. The challenge is now increasingly about how quickly these technologies can be rolled out and ensuring the wider energy system is able to support greater levels of renewable generation.
This means investment cannot focus only on building more renewable generation. Electricity networks will also need to be strengthened, while energy storage and flexibility will become increasingly important for balancing supply and demand. Improving energy efficiency can support this further by reducing unnecessary energy use and easing pressure on infrastructure.
Carbon Removal Alongside Emissions Reduction
The report also considers the role of carbon dioxide removal if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. Reaching net zero could eventually help to stabilise temperatures, but bringing temperatures back down would require the world to reach net-negative emissions, meaning more greenhouse gases would need to be removed from the atmosphere than are being released.
This could involve a combination of natural and technological solutions, from planting and restoring forests to technologies designed to remove carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere. However, UNEP makes clear that carbon removal should support emissions reductions rather than replace them, particularly as removing carbon on a very large scale still comes with practical, financial and environmental challenges.
Reducing emissions sooner can therefore help limit how far temperatures rise above 1.5°C and reduce the amount of carbon that may need to be removed in the future. Continued investment in existing emissions-reduction measures remains important even if the 1.5°C target is temporarily exceeded.
Adaptation Is Becoming Increasingly Important
Alongside reducing emissions, the report highlights the growing importance of adapting to a changing climate. Governments, businesses and communities may need to consider how infrastructure, buildings, water resources and supply chains can remain resilient as conditions change.
Within the energy sector, this includes making sure networks and other critical infrastructure can continue operating reliably during periods of more challenging weather. Businesses may also need to consider energy efficiency, onsite generation, consumption patterns and the resilience of their own infrastructure as part of longer-term planning.
Reducing emissions and adapting to changing conditions will therefore need to happen alongside one another. While emissions reductions remain important for limiting future warming, preparing infrastructure and organisations for changes that may be difficult to avoid will also be part of the longer-term response.
What Needs to Happen Next?
The latest findings do not mean that exceeding 1.5°C makes further climate action ineffective. Instead, the focus is on keeping any period above the target as limited and short as possible while continuing progress towards net zero and, eventually, net-negative emissions.
For the energy sector, many of the priorities remain the same. Expanding lower-carbon generation, improving energy efficiency, strengthening electricity networks, increasing energy storage and flexibility, and electrifying suitable areas of the economy can all help reduce emissions while supporting a more resilient energy system.
Achieving this will require action from governments, energy producers, network operators, investors and energy users. Clear policy and continued investment will also be important in helping major energy and infrastructure projects move forward at the pace needed.
UNEP’s latest assessment therefore does not make the 1.5°C target irrelevant. Instead, it highlights the importance of limiting any period above the target and continuing to reduce emissions. The decisions made over the coming years will play an important role in determining how far temperatures rise and how quickly they can eventually be brought back down.
